USD

Trump is involved in a green deal, aiming to secure gains for the fifth day. Traders are anxious about the views of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his perspective on a rate cut in December. The US Dollar Index soared to a new high around 107.00, retreating slightly after reaching a new annual high. Spurred by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, surged. Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, expressed caution about the likelihood of a rate cut in December, tempering longstanding market expectations. Due to these comments, the Dollar Index rose above 106.00, reaching a six-month high, but fell slightly after the October consumer price index data was released, showing no major surprises. The dollar climbed further, recovering after a decline earlier in the week, with the index rising above the year-to-date high of 107.00, consistently driven by the "Trump trade" and mixed US yields.

Despite a slight decline at the start of last week, technical indicators remain bullish, suggesting the upward trend could continue. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicate sustained positive momentum. Although consolidation or a pullback may occur before further increases, traders should monitor the index's performance near these levels to assess the sustainability of the uptrend. A rejection in the overbought zone could signal a decline or change in market sentiment, while a sustained breakthrough could extend the bullish momentum.

Overall, the technical outlook remains optimistic, with resistance at 107.00 (a psychological market barrier) and 107.30, and support at 106.00 (a round number), with further tests potentially down to 105.50 and 105.30 levels.

Today, consider shorting the US Dollar Index near 107.10, with a stop loss at 107.20 and targets at 106.60 and 106.50.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

Crude oil continues to face pressure as the International Energy Agency's report has intensified bearish prospects. The IEA's monthly report did not change its outlook for 2025. Following the U.S. Producer Price Index data, which was slightly stronger than expected, the momentum of the rebound in the US Dollar Index weakened. On Thursday, U.S. WTI crude was around $68.00. WTI prices rebounded slightly amid a decrease in crude inventories. However, a strengthening dollar could hinder the rise in WTI prices. As the U.S. consumer price index inflation data for October met expectations, the dollar index climbed to its highest level since November 2023, which could limit the upside for crude oil. A strong dollar makes oil, priced in dollars, more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s latest downward revision of demand growth on Tuesday also contributed to the decline in WTI prices. OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing weak demand from China, India, and other regions—marking the fourth consecutive downward revision of crude demand expectations by the producer group.

Crude oil prices face significant selling pressure and are unable to break through, maintaining a long-term downward trend. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 42 level, oscillating at low levels yet far from the oversold area, it suggests that the path of least resistance for oil prices is downwards. Traders should focus on $67.12, a level that sustained prices in May and June 2023, to find the first support. If this level is broken, the year-to-date low could reach $64.75. On the other hand, $69.45 (14-day moving average) is the first resistance level to consider before $70.26 (55-day simple moving average) and the $70.00 level; if breached, it could target $72.25 (the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from 77.93 to 66.57) and $72.52 (the 89-day moving average).

Today, consider going long on crude oil near $68.30, with a stop loss at $68.10 and targets at $69.60 and $69.70.

XAUUSD

The loss of momentum in the US dollar and a pullback in US yields across the curve have provided some upward momentum for gold, bringing it back to the $2,570 per ounce range and mitigating some earlier losses. After a slight dip earlier in the week, the dollar has regained strength. Following the opening of the US stock market and the release of the US consumer price index for October, the dollar became firm, reaching new weekly highs against most major currencies. For gold, prices temporarily fell below $2,600 to just under $2,560, and are now struggling to extend losses. Due to declining inflation and concerns over a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) had been cutting interest rates, propelling gold to historical highs in October, but this changed with the election of Donald Trump to the White House. Experts suggest that Trump's radical protectionism and "free market" economic policies could drive inflation back up, keeping interest rates high, which would be unfavorable for gold. A part of the reason for gold's decline in November is the significant outflow of funds from US exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

From a recent technical analysis perspective, gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, and given the principle that "the trend is your friend," it is more likely to continue falling. Gold breaking below the significant support level of $2,600—a psychological market threshold—would confirm the continuation of the short-term downtrend, potentially reaching the next target of $2,543.20, the 100-day moving average and the August high. The next level to watch would be $2,500, the low point of September 3, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is below 33, but not low enough to consider a potential reversal or medium-term bottoming out. This suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices is downward. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, gold prices are still in an upward trend, so there is a risk of reversal consistent with these broader bullish cycles. Therefore, a short-term technical rebound in gold prices might be seen, with the first target at $2,581.80 (the 80-day moving average), followed by $2,600.00 (psychological market threshold), and $2,603 (the low point on October 10).

Today, consider going long on gold near $2,564.00, with a stop loss at $2,560.00 and targets at $2,580.00 and $2,585.00.

AUDUSD

As in the past few days, further gains in the U.S. dollar have kept the Australian dollar and other risk-related assets subdued, with AUD/USD falling to a new low near 0.6440, indicating a potential further decline for the Australian dollar. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at 4.35% on November 5, as anticipated in preliminary estimates. The Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged gradual progress towards achieving its inflation target but slightly lowered its growth outlook. Australia's latest inflation data showed signs of easing, with inflation dropping to 2.1% in September and the annual rate for the third quarter at 2.8%. While potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve might support AUD/USD, persistent inflation risks, particularly under Trump's policies, may keep the dollar strong, thus limiting the upside for AUD/USD. Additionally, ongoing concerns about the Chinese economy could continue to drag on the Australian dollar.

The daily chart shows that the bearish trend continues. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the bearish territory at 34.70. If bears dominate, the next key level will be 0.6441 (the low of April 23), followed by the round number of 0.6400. A break below this could target the 2024 low at 0.6348 (August 5 level). On the upside, the immediate challenges are at the psychological market threshold of 0.6500, followed by 0.6546 (Wednesday's high), and further resistance at 0.6567 and the 0.6600 level.

Today, consider going long on the Australian dollar near 0.6435, with a stop loss at 0.6420 and targets at 0.6480 and 0.6490.

GBPUSD

Following U.S. economic data that showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the GBP/USD fell. In October, the overall Producer Price Index (PPI) saw its largest increase in four months, while core PPI rose for the third consecutive month. GBP/USD fell from a daily high of 1.2710 to close around 1.2660. The pair broke below the 1.2700 support level as sudden interest in buying the dollar surged following U.S. PPI data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Logan. Midweek, after mixed UK labor data, GBP/USD weakened, dropping nearly one percent below 1.28, with traders focused on a significant rise in UK unemployment exceeding expectations. Outside the UK, the dollar was favored across the board, its strength exacerbating the pound's mid-session decline. UK labor data was mostly above expectations, but wage growth continued to stoke inflation concerns. Despite jobless claims being lower than expected, they remained above the revised value from the previous month.

The daily chart shows a clear bearish tendency for GBP/USD, breaking key supports at the 200-day moving average (1.2819) and the psychological level of 1.2800, intensifying selling pressure. These levels have now reversed from strong support to resistance. The breach of 1.2819 - 1.2800 is a bearish signal, indicating that with bears dominating, the long-term trend could turn downward. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish as the MACD line is below the signal line, with both lines trending downwards in a bearish trajectory. Histograms point south, showing accelerating bearish momentum. The next targets to watch are 1.2600 (a round number) and 1.2550. Unless there is a significant rebound in the MACD, GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure. On the other hand, bulls need a close above the 200-day moving average (1.2819) to relieve some bearish pressure and possibly challenge further up towards 1.2873 (Tuesday's high).

Today, consider going long on GBP at 1.2640, with a stop loss at 1.2625 and targets at 1.2690 and 1.2700.

USDJPY

Due to uncertainties surrounding a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the yen continues to weaken. A bullish US dollar has pushed USD/JPY to a multi-month high, and yen bears are dismissive of the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities. On Thursday, the yen fell against the dollar for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching its lowest level since July 24 below 156.00 during the Asian session. Despite Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) for October recording the fastest year-over-year increase in over a year, investors seem to believe that domestic political uncertainty in Japan will make it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again. Furthermore, growing concerns over newly elected US President Trump potentially imposing high tariffs and their impact on the Japanese economy continue to weaken the yen. Meanwhile, expectations of inflationary fiscal policies from the incoming Trump administration have driven US Treasury yields to multi-month highs, further undermining the lower-yielding yen. Additionally, the so-called "Trump trade" continues to push the dollar to its highest levels since November 2023, boosting USD/JPY.

From a daily chart perspective, recent breakouts above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 153.40 (from 161.05 to 139.58) and a subsequent close above the psychological level of 155.00 on Wednesday favor the bulls. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady in the bullish territory, currently reporting at 66.80 and still far from the overbought zone. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains upwards. Therefore, some resistance is expected before the critical resistance area at 157.30-157.35, around the 156.55-156.60 zone. On the downside, the first support area is the 20-day moving average at 155.31, with a break below that potentially testing the 65-day moving average at 154.54, and the next support level at 152.65-152.60.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar near 156.50, with a stop loss at 156.70 and targets at 155.50 and 155.40.

EURUSD

As the EUR/USD breaks below the key support level of 1.0500, it has reached a new low for 2024, consistently benefiting from the strength of the US dollar, which hit a new annual high above 107.00 ahead of key US data releases on Friday. This week, the EUR/USD continued its descent to a 54-week low and stabilized around 1.0500. With the broader forex market shifting decisively in favor of holding dollars, the EUR/USD has continued its downward trajectory. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate to 3.25% on October 17 but opted to wait and see before deciding on any additional measures, focusing on upcoming economic data releases. Looking ahead, potential trade policies from the new Trump administration, including tariffs on imports from Europe and China, could push up inflation in the US. Meanwhile, if the Federal Reserve leans towards a more cautious or hawkish approach, reducing rate hikes, it could provide additional support for the dollar.

The daily chart shows a strong bearish trend in EUR/USD, trading solidly below the 9-day (1.0717) and 34-day (1.0854) moving averages, indicating that EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish stance. Recent selling has pushed the pair close to the critical psychological level of 1.0500, which could serve as direct support. A break below this level could lead to further declines. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator highlights the current bearish momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line and in the negative zone, reflecting strong selling pressure. Moreover, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is widening, coupled with a series of red bars, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact. If the 1.0500 support level is continuously breached, it could open the door to further declines, with potential targets in the next few trading days being 1.0450 (the low from October 4, 2023), and the 1.0400 level. On the upside, for EUR/USD to regain a more bullish outlook, it would need to break above the Wednesday high of 1.0654, potentially moving further up to 1.0710 (9-day moving average).

Today, consider going long on EUR at 1.0510, with a stop loss at 1.0500, and targets at 1.0580 and 1.0590.

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