US Dollar Index

Before the weekend, the US reported that the core PCE rose by 0.4% in February and the headline PCE was 0.3%, which was in line with expectations and did not bring major surprises to traders. Despite the strong data, the US dollar index remained sideways and retreated to below 104 to close gold prices above $3,080. The recent tariff announcements by US President Trump, including the 25% auto tariff that will take effect on April 2, have shaken global trade sentiment. The US dollar index is currently hovering around slightly below 104. The US dollar is under downward pressure due to the decline in US bond yields, with the 2-year bond yield at 3.98% and the 10-year bond yield at 4.34%. In addition, the US dollar has raised concerns about stagflation due to the decline in University of Michigan data, but traders are not really focusing on the US dollar, but withdrawing funds from the stock and cryptocurrency markets and flowing into the precious metals market. Gold hit another record high on Friday, reaching $3,086.80. The deadline for reciprocal tariffs is approaching, set for April 2, which is obviously causing tension among traders and market participants. Uncertainty about US policies could hamper global economic growth, while Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, warned that uncertainty about the Trump administration's trade policy could make the Fed take a more cautious wait-and-see approach than the market expects.

The US dollar index continues to consolidate around the 104.00 area, and momentum indicators remain mixed despite a buy signal from the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). Strong oscillators remain stable, indicating weak trend strength. The bearish backdrop is supported by the 20; 100; and 200-day simple moving averages, all pointing to the downside. They are located at 104.12; 106.16; and 104.95, respectively. The 20- and 200-day simple moving averages formed a bearish "death cross" last week, which increases the chances of a downward correction in the US dollar index. Therefore, the downside targets can focus on 103.85 (14-day simple moving average, then 103.20 (this year's low), and 103.00 (round mark). If investors further abandon their long-term US dollar positions, the next key support will point to the 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18) level. As for the upside, the first resistance level to note is 104.50 {last Friday's high}, then the 200-day simple moving average of 104.95, and 104.90 {38.2% Fibonacci rebound level of 107.66 to 103.20}. Once this area is broken, a series of key levels such as 105.43 {50.0% Fibonacci rebound level}} and 106.16 {50-day simple moving average} may limit the upward momentum.

Today, it can be considered at 104.12 Short the US dollar index nearby, stop loss: 104.25, target: 103.70, 103.60

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. Crude oil prices fell before the weekend on concerns that the US tariff war could trigger a global recession, but they rose for the third consecutive week after Washington increased pressure on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. WTI crude oil rebounded repeatedly last week to a near one-month high of around $70.05. Oil prices have been rising since US President Trump imposed a 25% secondary tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil or natural gas on April 2. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.341 million barrels. The decline in crude oil inventories provided some support for crude oil prices. However, uncertainty on the demand side still suppressed market sentiment. President Trump's latest 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks has raised market concerns about consumer costs and the automotive industry's demand for crude oil. But analytical data shows that this may slow the popularity of energy-saving or electric vehicles, which may support crude oil demand in the short term. Although short-term resistance levels put pressure on crude oil prices, the continued supply threat from US sanctions and Venezuelan oil supply disruptions indicate that oil prices still have upside potential.

From the daily chart, WTI Crude oil is now forming an "upward channel" rising pattern. The current crude oil price is close to the upper track of the channel at $70.68 and slightly below. At this stage, WTI crude oil fluctuates around the 25-day {68.00} and 45-day {69.72) moving averages, indicating that the short-term market bullish and bearish forces are relatively balanced, but slightly stronger. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is near the positive zone of 50.50. This indicates that if the oil price continues to stand above the central axis of the "upward channel" at $68.95, the short-term bullish trend may continue; the first target is $70.00 {market psychological barrier}, and the next level will point to the upper track of the "upward channel" at $70.68. If it breaks, it will further challenge the $72.29 {200-day moving average} level. On the downside, once the oil price goes down, these positions will test the defensive strength of the bulls, with initial support at the 25-day moving average of $68.04 and the integer barrier of $68.00. Support below this is at $67.40 {upward channel lower line} level.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 68.65, stop loss: 68.50; target: 70.20; 70.50

Spot gold

Last week, gold prices rose sharply, hitting $3,086.80 and hitting 18 new all-time highs. Due to uncertainty in US trade policy and the rise in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Since then, traders seem confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025. Gold prices closed the week at $3,085, up more than 2.0%. Market sentiment was pessimistic, and traders were preparing for "Liberation Day" on April 2, when President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all cars imported into the United States. This triggered reactions around the world, mainly in Canada and the European Union, which has begun preparing to retaliate against the measure. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to weaken and is expected to end the week with a loss of 0.15%, which supports the price of precious metals. On the other hand, after the escalation of global trade tensions and the stock market plunge, investors have sought safe-haven assets, and the market estimates that $3,100 will be seen soon. The main catalyst is safe-haven buying, which is driven by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan. Market professionals raised their gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,100 per ounce to $3,300, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and continued central bank demand. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 23 tons of gold in one trading day last Thursday, the largest single-day increase since 2022.

Before the weekend, gold prices climbed to an all-time high of around $3,086.80, setting an 18th all-time high. The possibility of testing $3,100 in the near term is back on the table. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart shows that buyers are gathering momentum and the index has turned overbought {latest at 73.52}. However, in the fierce volatility, the most extreme level will be 80. The next resistance level for gold/dollar is $3,112 {upper line of the daily chart upward channel}, and $3,100 {round mark}. After breaking through, it will face the resistance area of ​​$3,150-3,200. On the contrary, the first support level of gold is $3,040 {middle axis line of the daily chart upward channel}, and $3,038.10 {9-day simple moving average} area. Once broken, the next target will be the psychological barrier of $3,000. If the market risk aversion continues to heat up, coupled with the strong inflow of ETF funds, the gold price is expected to consolidate the foundation at the support area of ​​$2,980.10, the high of the 20-day simple moving average, and then hit the 19th historical high of $3,100-3,112 again.

Today, consider going long on gold before 3,052, stop loss: 3,047; target: 3,080.00; 3.085.00

AUD/USD

Last week, AUD/USD remained directionless and hovered in the 0.6300 area. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index failed to trigger a significant market reaction as the data was in line with expectations, with the exception of the core PCE which was slightly higher than forecast. Despite the weakening demand for the US dollar, the Australian dollar still found it difficult to gain ground as cautious sentiment over trade tensions and the uncertain policy outlook of the Federal Reserve remained. Last week, AUD/USD fluctuated in a narrow range of less than 70 pips {0.6267 - 0.6330}. The pair fell amid heightened risk aversion due to concerns over the upcoming US auto tariffs. US President Trump signed an order last Wednesday to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports, further escalating global trade tensions. A Reuters poll of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that 39 economists expected the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.10% on April 1. However, the median forecast showed that two rate cuts were expected in 2025, 25 basis points each in May and September, bringing the rate to 3.60% in the third quarter.

From the daily chart, AUD/USD fluctuated in a narrow range of 0.6267-0.6330 last week. The full-week volatility was less than 75 pips, and it is currently hovering around 0.6300. At this stage, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is still below 50 {latest at around 47.00}, indicating continued bearish pressure. In the short term, 0.6330 {last week's high}, and 0.6333 {23.6% Guibonacci retracement of 0.6087 to 0.6409} area serve as immediate resistance. A break above this level could strengthen short-term momentum, opening the door to test 0.6373 {120-day moving average} last reached on March 18, and 0.6391, the March 18 high, followed by the three-month high of 0.6409. On the downside, failure to maintain gains could push AUD/USD back to 0.6300 {market psychological level}, reinforcing the bearish outlook. In this case, the pair could first fall towards this week's low of 0.6267, followed by 0.6210 {61.8% Guibonacci retracement level}, and around 0.6200 (round number level).

Consider going long on AUD before 0.6270 today, stop loss: 0.6260; target: 0.6320; 0.6330.

GBP/USD

Last week, the British pound remained firm, hovering around 1.2950 with little change against the dollar as traders digested the latest US inflation report ahead of the weekend while feeling uncertain about the trade war that could escalate after Trump imposed tariffs on cars. The British pound outperformed other major currencies last week, except for the US dollar, thanks to the release of the UK February retail sales data and revised fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. On the other hand, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which remained unchanged at 2.5% year-on-year in February. The core PCE data, which is favored by the Federal Reserve, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than 2.7% in the same period. Despite the status quo, inflation is still moving away from the Fed's 2% target. Recently, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index deteriorated slightly, falling to 57.0 from 57.9 in the preliminary reading. Across the Atlantic, UK retail sales fell in February from January, but exceeded economists' expectations of -0.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 1%. This week, the British economic calendar will remain blank. In the US, traders are focusing on Trump’s tariff announcement for April, ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOLTs job openings and non-farm payrolls.

Last week, the British pound remained firm and outperformed other major currencies. Technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the GBP/USD continues to have a bullish outlook, with the pair consolidating within the “upward channel” pattern. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remains above 60, showing strong bullish momentum. In addition, the GBP/USD rebounded above the 20-day moving average of 1.2903, and the 1.2900 {round number} support area, further consolidating the bullish outlook for short-term price action. GBP/USD may face initial resistance near 1.2992 {last week’s high}, and 1.3000 {market psychological level}. Sustained gains may strengthen the bullish bias, which may push the currency pair to the central axis of the ascending channel, around 1.3060. On the downside, the 21-day moving average of 1.2903 and 1.2900{round mark} serve as near-term support, followed by the lower line of the "rising channel" near 1.2865. If this key area is broken, the 200-day moving average of 1.2803 and 1.2800{round mark} serve as the next key support, which may weaken short-term price momentum.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2928, stop loss: 1.2915, target: 1.2980, 1.2990

USD/JPY

Despite higher-than-expected US core personal consumption expenditure inflation in February, USD/JPY continues to face selling pressure. The full-week close is back below 150. Investors brace for the US reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump on Wednesday this week. The yen strengthened after Tokyo's CPI data came in above expectations. The yen hit a near four-week low of around 151.21 last week. In addition, the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions showed that rate hikes are still under consideration if the economy and prices are in line with forecasts, which in turn provided some support to the yen. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the upcoming reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump and their impact on the global economy continues to weigh on investor sentiment. This has become another factor supporting demand for the safe-haven yen. Apart from this, weak US dollar price action has kept USD/JPY trading below 151.00. However, concerns that Trump's trade tariffs could affect Japan's key exports have kept yen bulls from making aggressive bets. The downside for the US dollar also seems to be limited as investors choose to wait for clues about the path of the Fed's rate cuts. This will play a key role in influencing the US dollar and provide some meaningful impetus to USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, the intraday pullback from near the monthly highs warrants caution before making fresh bullish bets on USD/JPY. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are just beginning to gain positive traction. However, a sustained sell-off below the 149.82{34-day SMA}, and 148.64 (Friday’s low) area would negate this positive bias and drag the pair to the 149.00 round number of last week’s low and 149.02{20-day SMA} area support zone, pointing to the next 148.59 (March 21 low) related support. A break below that would see further 148.00{round number}. On the other hand, a break above the monthly high, near the 151.30 area, could face some resistance near the technically important 200-day SMA, currently around 151.61. A sustained strong break above that average would be seen as a new trigger for the bulls and allow USD/JPY to recapture the 152.00 round number. The positive momentum could extend further to the 152.65 {upper line of the upward channel} area.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 150.05 , Stop Loss: 150.30; Target: 149.10, 149.00

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rebounded as the euro recovered strongly after the European Commission said it was ready to make concessions for the United States to escape some of the tariffs that President Trump will announce on Wednesday. The pair strengthened as the US dollar retreated after the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February. The European Union is identifying the concessions it is willing to make to the Trump administration to ensure a partial elimination of US tariffs that have begun to affect the bloc's exports and are expected to increase after April 2. On the other hand, EUR/USD continued to fall for most of last week and closed higher only two of the past eight trading days, The euro weakened against the dollar as the euro faces uncertainty due to the deepening risk of a potential trade war between the eurozone and the United States. The European Commission plans to retaliate against the United States by imposing a 25% tariff on cars. German automakers export 13% of their cars to the United States, and a 25% tariff on cars could make their cars less competitive in the global market. At the same time, European Central Bank officials expect Trump's tariff policy to hurt eurozone economic growth and drive inflationary pressures in the short term.

The euro continued to fall against the dollar last week, hitting a three-week low of 1.0733, and fell in six of the past eight trading days. With the recent downtrend in the euro against the dollar broken, buyers will seek to push the exchange rate back to the earlier high of 1.0955. From the current daily chart, EUR/USD fell to 1.0733 late last week, but continues to stay near the 200-day simple moving average, trading around 1.0726. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is below 60.00, indicating that the bullish momentum may have ended, but the upward bias still exists, because the 25-day {1.0738} and 200-day {1.0726} simple moving averages formed a "golden cross" bullish pattern before the weekend. Therefore, once EUR/USD regroups and returns above 1.0800 {market psychological level} and 1.0814 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.0360 to 1.0955}, the next upward target will be 1.0858 {last week's high}. 1.0955 {March high) and 1.1000 {psychological level} will be the key resistance levels for euro bulls in the short term. As for the downside, 1.0726{200-day simple moving average}, and 1.2727{38.2% Fibonacci retracement level}. are the main support areas. If they break, the 1.0700 level of the round mark will be seen. Then there is the 1.0657{50.0% Fibonacci retracement level} mark.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0810, stop loss: 1.0800, target: 1.0855, 1.0865.

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