U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up slightly to 97.75 on Tuesday as markets weighed significant revisions to employment growth data alongside the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payrolls for the year through March may be revised down by 911,000, implying an average monthly reduction of about 76,000 jobs. This suggests the labor market is weaker than previously thought. While these benchmark adjustments reflect past data, they reinforce recent evidence of slowing job creation, with payroll growth averaging only 29,000 per month over the summer.

The revisions have heightened expectations that the Fed will begin cutting rates next week. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged growing risks to employment, and traders now widely expect a rate cut on September 17, marking the restart of the Fed’s easing cycle. Meanwhile, reports of Israeli strikes in Qatar reignited fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index has slipped below the key psychological support at 98.00, with bearish momentum continuing to build. With traders anticipating a more dovish Fed stance and U.S. Treasury yields hitting multi-month lows, the dollar lacks near-term catalysts for a rebound. Unless this week’s CPI release or benchmark payroll revisions deliver a positive surprise, the most likely trajectory for the dollar remains downward. Immediate support is seen at 96.72 (July 3 low) and the 97.00 round number, with further downside risk toward 96.38 (July 1 low) if selling pressure intensifies. Resistance sits at 98.00 (psychological level) and 98.26 (34-day moving average), both of which have been reinforced by recent technical breakdowns.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude oil held steady near $62.50 per barrel on Tuesday, extending the prior session’s gains. The move was supported by OPEC+’s modest production increase and concerns that Russian oil may face further sanctions. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. The relatively small increase underscored the group’s cautious stance as the market heads into a projected surplus. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tougher sanctions on Russia following its most severe air strikes on Ukraine since the war began. Any additional restrictions on Russian crude could disrupt global supply. However, Saudi Arabia—the world’s largest crude exporter—cut prices for all grades sold to Asian buyers for October delivery, signaling weaker demand and capping oil’s upside.

On the daily chart, U.S. crude has stabilized around $61.60 (this week’s low) and the $62.00 round number after last week’s sharp decline. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued at 43, indicating bearish momentum has not fully faded, though downside pressure may be easing. If oil holds above the $61.60–62.00 support zone, it could extend its rebound toward the 20-day simple moving average at $63.18 and the $63.20 level (last Friday’s low). A further breakout could open the way to test the 100-day simple moving average at $64.10. Conversely, a drop below $61.60 would re-expose the downside, with targets at $60.78 (June 2 low) and the $60.00 psychological level.

Spot Gold

Gold prices surged to another record high on Tuesday, briefly touching $3,659.30 per ounce, driven by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end. Last Friday’s unexpectedly weak U.S. jobs report fueled bets for three rate cuts this year, including a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting. Investors are now awaiting inflation data due later this week, which could further shape the Fed’s policy path. Beyond interest rate expectations, safe-haven demand has also been bolstered by uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical risks. So far this year, gold has soared 39%, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, large-scale central bank purchases, dovish monetary policies, and rising global uncertainties.

This week’s astonishing rally not only set fresh all-time highs but also reinforced market conviction in inflationary pressures and easier policy ahead. While short-term pullbacks remain possible as key data is released, the broader momentum suggests another record may be within reach if gold can withstand near-term corrections. Technically, gold has twice reached new highs this week at $3,659.30, paving the way toward the next psychological milestone of $3,700. Bullish momentum is accelerating, and while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, it remains below the extreme 80 threshold. As such, a further move higher toward $3,700 and $3,750 remains likely, with downside support seen at $3,600 and $3,563.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar briefly broke above 0.6600 on Tuesday, reaching a one-month high of 0.6615. The rally was fueled by broad U.S. dollar weakness, as markets increased bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. Current pricing suggests an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s meeting, while some traders are even bracing for a larger 50-basis-point move.

On the domestic side, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% in September to 95.4, highlighting persistent concerns over household demand as pessimism continues to outweigh optimism. Meanwhile, NAB’s Business Confidence Index dropped from 8 in July to 4 in August 2025—a three-month low—after last month’s print marked the highest level since August 2022.

Technically, AUD/USD traded above 0.6600 on Tuesday and maintains a bullish bias on the daily chart. The pair is currently holding above the 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6550, reinforcing short-term upward momentum. On the upside, the next key target is 0.6625, the 10-month high set on July 24. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the door toward the 11-month high at 0.6681 from November 2024. Initial support sits at the 9-day SMA near 0.6550, which also aligns with the lower boundary of the rising channel around 0.6540. A breakdown below this area would weaken the bullish bias and expose the 50-day SMA at 0.6520.

GBP/USD

Sterling retreated during the North American session on Tuesday following the release of the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls benchmark revisions, which fell short of expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported preliminary benchmark revisions to total employment since March 2025, showing a downward adjustment of -911,000. Prior to the release, the U.S. government had indicated that the economy added nearly 1.8 million workers in the year to March. Tuesday’s data did little to alter traders’ expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Across the Atlantic, the British Retail Consortium reported that U.K. retail sales rose 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 1% a year earlier. Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release, followed by a busy Thursday calendar dominated by CPI and initial jobless claims data.

Technically, GBP/USD has been consolidating above 1.3500 since the weekend, climbing to a three-week high of 1.3590. A break above last week’s high at 1.3571 could pave the way toward the psychological 1.3600 handle. Momentum remains supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending higher at 57.40—firmly in bullish territory but not yet overbought. If buyers reclaim 1.3600, the next upside targets are the July 4 high at 1.3681 and then the 1.3700 round figure. On the downside, a drop below 1.3500 would expose support at 1.3454, the 105-day simple moving average. Further weakness could see a move toward the 1.3400 psychological level.

USD/JPY

The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen for a third straight session on Tuesday, briefly touching 146.25—its lowest level in two weeks—near the August low of 146.20. The yen drew further support after Bank of Japan officials reiterated their commitment to monetary tightening. On Monday, political uncertainty also drove yen volatility after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation following summer election losses. Sanae Takaichi, a former Economic Security Minister known for her opposition to rate hikes, emerged as a potential successor. Should she be appointed, doubts could arise about the BOJ’s tightening agenda.

Meanwhile, labor market data indicated further weakness, with sources expecting an additional 800,000 jobs to be cut in the 12 months to March. Such figures would reflect a rapidly deteriorating labor market and add pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle. Hopes for a 50-basis-point rate cut next week may intensify, weighing broadly on the dollar.

Technically, USD/JPY’s failure to hold near the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance at 148.80, followed by a breakdown below the 148.00 round figure, has reinforced the bearish bias. Daily chart oscillators have also begun regaining negative momentum, suggesting the path of least resistance is lower. A sustained move below the 147.00 handle would confirm the bearish outlook, exposing the August swing low around 146.20 and the psychological 146.00 level, with further downside toward 145.00.

On the upside, the intraday high near 147.55 now acts as immediate resistance. A decisive break above could spark short-covering and help the pair reclaim the 148.00 handle. However, momentum may quickly fade near the 200-day SMA at 148.80, followed by the 149.00 psychological barrier and the 149.20 zone.

EUR/USD

The euro climbed as high as 1.1780 on Tuesday, extending its recent uptrend. The weaker-than-expected August U.S. jobs report kept the dollar under pressure, bolstering expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point cut. Traders are now bracing for a data-heavy week in the U.S., with two key inflation reports—August PPI and CPI—likely to shape the interest rate outlook.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates steady for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday, supported by steady growth and inflation near target. Market participants will pay close attention to the meeting for any guidance on the ECB’s outlook for the rest of the year.

Technically, EUR/USD has continued its upward trajectory, rebounding from last week’s low at 1.1608 to this week’s high at 1.1780, confirming strong buying momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen toward 58, signaling bullish control. The next upside target lies at the psychological 1.1800 level. A break above would expose the year-to-date high at 1.1830 and potentially challenge the 1.1880 peak from July 5, 2021. On the downside, a daily close below 1.1700 would weaken the outlook and put the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1664 into focus, followed by last week’s low at 1.1608.

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