US Dollar Index (DXY)

Last week, the US Dollar Index extended its choppy decline, with a total weekly fluctuation of 0.73%, falling from 99.51 at the start of the week to 98.77 by Friday’s close. The move reflects persistent pressure from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as intense technical battles around key support levels. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, with an additional 2–3 rate cuts expected next year.

Further weighing on the dollar is speculation that economic adviser Kevin Hassett could replace Chair Jerome Powell in May, potentially signaling a more dovish policy direction. On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in over three years, although Thanksgiving-related distortions may have played a role. Meanwhile, the Challenger report showed layoffs rising to 71,321 in November, the highest level for the month since 2022. Investors are now awaiting delayed September PCE inflation data, along with consumer spending and income figures.

Technically, the DXY remains in a volatile downward trend, having briefly dipped to the one-month low at 98.77. The index has broken multiple prior support levels and is now fluctuating near the 99.00 psychological level. While a bullish hammer candle earlier in the week suggested a potential short-term rebound, the recovery quickly faded. The index is now trading below the 20-day MA (99.55), with the 5-day (99.13) and 10-day (99.43) averages forming a bearish alignment—reinforcing short-term downside momentum.

Momentum indicators remain mixed: MACD is still above zero but weakening, while RSI hovers near neutral, signaling a lack of strong directional conviction. The next major move will likely depend on the Fed’s policy decision. A confirmed rate cut could push the index below the key support band at 98.73–98.76, opening the door toward 98.03 and possibly the 98.00 psychological level. A hawkish surprise may trigger a short-term rebound toward 99.48 (200-day MA) and 99.71, though the medium-term downtrend would remain intact.

WTI Crude Oil (Spot)

WTI crude hovered above $59.80 per barrel last week, holding near the $60.00 psychological level and maintaining its weekly gains, supported by rising geopolitical risk premiums. Traders remain focused on potential US action against Venezuela, as President Trump hinted at immediate measures that could threaten the country’s 1.1 million barrels per day of production. Meanwhile, stalled US-Russia talks on the Ukraine conflict and continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure further supported prices. Expectations of US rate cuts improving economic activity and oil demand also added upward pressure.

On the bearish side, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of clear global oversupply. The IEA forecasts global demand growth of just 740,000 bpd, the slowest pace in 16 years. With the peak driving season over and refinery maintenance picking up, Q4 demand is expected to fall by around 500,000 bpd compared with Q3.

From a technical perspective, WTI remains in a medium-term bearish trend but with short-term stabilization. Prices rebounded from $57.10 to near $59.80, but the 100-day MA (~$61.87) and 200-day MA (~$63.29) continue to slope downward, confirming the broader bearish structure. A prior evening star reversal pattern triggered a sharp midweek drop to $58.17, followed by a consolidation rebound.

Prices are now approaching the 50-day MA at $59.69, a key resistance zone that has repeatedly capped rallies since late October. RSI at 52.83 shows balanced momentum, while MACD bearish momentum is fading, indicating that downside pressure is weakening. Immediate support lies at $58.17 and $58.00, followed by $57.58 (lower Bollinger Band) and $57.10. On the upside, $60.00 remains a strong psychological resistance. A confirmed breakout could target $60.79 and then $61.87.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold closed near $4,200 per ounce last Friday after briefly touching a weekly high of $4,259.50 ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, showed minimal change and remained near the 3% level, still above the 2% target. While this supports a hold in rates for now, easing labor market data and dovish Fed commentary continue to favor rate cuts.

The University of Michigan survey showed slight improvement in consumer sentiment and falling inflation expectations, despite ongoing tariff concerns. A Reuters poll confirmed that economists are increasingly pricing in a December rate cut, providing fresh upside support for gold. Geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding Ukraine, remain another key bullish driver.

Technically, gold is entering the final phase of a symmetrical triangle consolidation, trapped between $4,140 and $4,250. Although profit-taking has emerged, the broader trend remains bullish after rallying from $3,998 (Nov 18) to $4,264 (Dec 1).

RSI has cooled from overbought to around 60, reducing short-term overheating risks. MACD remains constructive, confirming the underlying bullish structure. The narrowing distance between short- and medium-term moving averages suggests a major directional breakout is approaching.

Upside resistance sits at $4,264.50, then $4,300, and further at $4,381 (prior all-time high). Downside support levels are found at $4,154 (14-day MA), $4,151 (38.2% Fibonacci), and $4,100.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD posted a strong weekly gain of 1.17%, rising from 0.6532 to 0.6649, driven by widening policy divergence between the Fed and the RBA. Markets now price a 89.2% chance of a 25-bp Fed rate cut, while the RBA is widely expected to hold rates again due to sticky inflation. This “US easing vs. Australian stability” dynamic continues to support the Aussie.

Technically, the pair broke convincingly above both the 100-day MA (0.6536) and the key 0.6600 psychological level, confirming the continuation of the rebound from the Nov 25 low at 0.6436. Option markets also show rising demand for AUD call options, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

On the chart, the 10-day MA has crossed above the 100-day MA, forming a bullish golden cross. RSI at 68.25 and ADX at 49.86 both confirm a strong bullish trend. Key supports are located at 0.6598, 0.6536, and 0.6500. Major resistance stands at 0.6660, 0.6699, and the 2025 high at 0.6707.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD resumed its upward trend last week, gaining 0.68% to trade near 1.3335, as stable US inflation strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM, in line with forecasts, while consumer sentiment improved. One-year inflation expectations fell from 4.5% to 4.1%, reinforcing the case for monetary easing.

Markets continue to price in an 84% chance of a 25-bp Fed cut next week. Meanwhile, UK economic data showed modest improvement, and budget concerns eased slightly. However, the Bank of England is still expected to cut rates to 3.75% on Dec 18.

Technically, GBP/USD remains above its 21-day MA at 1.3187 and 50-day MA at 1.3266, but is still capped below the 100-day MA near 1.3367. RSI at 61.54 supports continued upside without signaling overbought conditions. A daily close above 1.3367–1.3362 would open the path toward 1.3400, 1.3471, and 1.3500. Support is seen at 1.3266, then 1.3200 and 1.3179.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell steadily last week from 156.20 to 154.35, down around 0.54%, driven primarily by a sharp shift in Bank of Japan policy expectations. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal yet that rate hikes are imminent, stating that policy tightening would proceed if economic conditions align. As a result, the market now prices nearly a 90% probability of a rate hike on December 19.

Technically, December 1 marked a major turning point as USD/JPY broke below the 156.00 psychological level, officially ending the uptrend that had been in place since October. Price is now trading within a descending channel, with former support at 155.98–156.20 turning into strong resistance. A break above this zone would target 156.98–157.00.

Key support is located at 154.35–154.48, followed by 154.00 and 153.21 (50-day MA).

EUR/USD

EUR/USD held firm last week, rising about 0.38% and trading near 1.1650, its highest level since mid-October. The pair continues to benefit from policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. Upgraded Eurozone Q3 GDP growth to 0.3% and the strongest PMI expansion since May 2023 signaled economic resilience.

ECB official Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that downside inflation risks now outweigh upside risks and emphasized that current policy remains restrictive. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain a lingering headwind.

Technically, EUR/USD remains within a rising channel after breaking its short-term downtrend in November. Price continues to hold above the 50-day MA at 1.1609 and the 1.1550–1.1600 support zone. The pair peaked at 1.1682 before pulling back into consolidation between 1.1650 and 1.1700.

MACD remains bullish but weak, while RSI in the 58–60 range shows mild bullish momentum. Failure above 1.1700 could trigger a pullback toward 1.1600, 1.1555, and 1.1500. A confirmed breakout above 1.1682–1.1700 would target 1.1728 and 1.1778.