Last week, US stocks experienced two sharp declines, both dragged down by a sell-off in tech stocks. The cryptocurrency market saw a collective plunge, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $100,000. The US dollar initially rose before falling, with the dollar index breaking strongly above 100 in the first half of the week, reaching a three-month high, before falling back below 100 on Thursday and closing at 99.55 on Friday, its first decline in three weeks.

The precious metals market experienced significant volatility last week: gold was pressured by a strong dollar, falling below $3,930, a near one-month low, before rebounding. Silver followed a similar pattern, with a significantly wider trading range. Spot silver closed at $48.35 per ounce last week, down 0.68%.

The oil market continued its downward trend: although OPEC+'s plan to pause production increases in 2026 provided temporary support, the market remained focused on the real pressure from weak Asian factory activity and rising global inventories. Both crude oil and crude oil prices fell for four consecutive trading days, marking their second consecutive week of declines.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than three years: Affected by the government shutdown dragging down the economic outlook and high prices worsening personal financial expectations, data from the University of Michigan showed that the preliminary consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in the previous month, the lowest since June 2022.

The U.S. government shutdown continues to break records: The U.S. federal government shutdown continues to break records for length, with disagreements between Republicans and Democrats on spending measures leading to a deadlock in negotiations. Approximately 42 million people are affected by the suspension of food assistance payments.

The U.S. Supreme Court debated Trump's tariff policy: The U.S. Supreme Court debated Trump's tariff policy. Of the nine justices, liberals and most conservatives questioned the legality of the tariffs, with only Justice Alito showing a supportive stance. Trump needs five votes to maintain the policy, a situation currently extremely unfavorable for him.

Democrats achieved a landslide victory in local elections: The Democratic Party achieved an overwhelming victory in this week's local elections, winning key positions including mayor of New York City, governor of New Jersey, and governor of Virginia.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

Last week, dragged down by a continued correction in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and heightened investor concerns about an economic slowdown, US stocks closed lower for the week. On Friday (November 7), the three major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite Index continuing its decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 74.80 points, or 0.16%, to 46,987.10; the Nasdaq Composite fell 49.46 points, or 0.21%, to 23,004.54; and the S&P 500 rose 8.48 points, or 0.13%, to 6,728.80. Amid high valuations in technology stocks and concerns about market concentration, all three major US stock benchmark indexes closed lower last week. The Nasdaq fell more than 3% last week, its worst weekly performance since the week of April 4 (when it fell 10%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.63%.

The $4,000 mark is fiercely contested! The interplay of three key factors—the US, the US economy, and the US stock market—is a crucial variable, potentially signaling a breakout for gold. This week, gold prices have remained range-bound around $4,000, lacking a clear direction. Geopolitical risks have temporarily taken a backseat, while the US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, creating an "information vacuum" in the market. Against this backdrop, investors are turning to speeches by Federal Reserve officials, the dollar's performance, and volatility in the US stock market for clues about the next move.

Before the end of last week, silver rose nearly 1% to around $48.5 per ounce, extending its recent gains, as weak US economic data fueled demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a Fed rate cut. The University of Michigan's November consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3, the second lowest level on record, below the expected 53.2, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about the potential economic impact of the longest government shutdown in US history.

The US dollar index rebounded above the psychological level of 100.00 last week, but remained fragile amid weak US employment data and political uncertainty. U.S. companies laid off 153,000 jobs in October, the largest drop in 20 years, fueling expectations of a December rate cut. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now the longest in history, continues to weigh heavily on the dollar. The shutdown shows no signs of ending. The dollar index fell to around 99.50 before the weekend, a modest pullback after recent gains. Dollar sentiment remains fragile.

The euro/dollar pair corrected some of its earlier losses late last week. A lack of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic, the 38th day of the U.S. government shutdown, and a relaxed European economic schedule kept the pair hovering around familiar levels around 1.1560. The yen retreated further to around 143.40 after hitting a more than one-week high earlier last week, as the U.S. dollar rebounded and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike persisted. Investors now seem to believe that the Bank of Japan may resist tightening policy due to the new Prime Minister Sanae Takashi's pro-stimulus stance and signs of cooling private consumption in Japan.

The pound/dollar pair rose ahead of the weekend amid a lack of UK economic data releases, climbing to a new weekly high above 1.3170 on Friday. The market digested the scarce economic data amid the ongoing US government shutdown. The pair is currently trading at 1.3165, after hitting a daily low of 1.3095. The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar on Friday, extending its decline for the second consecutive trading day. The pair was pressured by China's October trade balance data of 640.4 billion yuan. The Australian dollar traded steadily as doubts grew about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates further this year. It closed at 0.6498 before the weekend close.

International oil prices rebounded from intraday lows over the weekend as the market hoped that Hungary would continue to use Russian crude oil, following a meeting between US President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the White House. Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 a barrel, up $0.25, or 0.39%; WTI crude oil settled at $59.70, up $0.32, or 0.54%.

Bitcoin continued its decline last week, falling below $110,000 before the weekend, as macroeconomic headwinds continued to pressure risk assets. The cryptocurrency market wiped out almost all of its market capitalization gains since 2025 in just over a month. As of October 6, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies had reached a record high of nearly $4.4 trillion, but then plummeted by about 20% in just a few weeks, leaving only a 2.5% gain for the year. This crash began after approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated following the market peak, causing investor confidence to collapse instantly, with almost no signs of a market rebound.

This move caught the market off guard—especially given the widespread embrace of digital assets by regulators, global banks, and institutional investors this year; almost no one anticipated the sharp decline in crypto assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from a one-month high of 4.16% to 4.1%, as increasing signs of economic weakness supported the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board as the fixed-income market reacted to a deteriorating labor market outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 6 basis points to 4.089%, the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.566%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.686%.

Market Outlook for This Week:

This week (November 10-14), a concentrated release of core Chinese economic data (PPI/CPI, social financing and credit, retail sales, etc.), along with economic indicators from Europe and the U.S., oil market reports, and central bank actions from multiple countries, will take place.

On the other hand, the US government remains in a shutdown this week, with the possibility of it being lifted at any time. Core economic data may be absent again or arrive suddenly, posing a potential risk of data gaps. Investors also need to be wary of the risk transmission risk from the US stock market correction. Investors can rely on central bank signals, geopolitical developments, and alternative indicators to capture trading opportunities.

Regarding the risks this week:

Risk Warning: Multiple variables harbor potential volatility.

The US government shutdown has resulted in the absence of key data, but the shutdown may end at any time, causing asset price volatility. Furthermore, a rapid and significant correction in the US stock market could quickly translate into market sentiment and cause asset price fluctuations.

Secondly, speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England may signal a policy shift.

Thirdly, in addition to core economic data, investors need to be particularly vigilant about other risks such as the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts (Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, US-Venezuela issue, etc.).

US Government Shutdown Sets Record for Longest: Background and Future Outlook

The US government shutdown has lasted 39 days, becoming the longest shutdown in US history. This means that both of the longest government shutdowns in US political history have occurred during President Trump's term; the previous record of 35 days was set during his first term in 2019.

For the past five weeks, Congress has made virtually no progress, with Republicans and Democrats continuing to blame each other for the deadlock. The Senate has rejected a Republican-proposed temporary funding bill 14 times, which aimed to restore government operations until November 21.

Democrats insist on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Trump and Republicans have stated they will refuse to negotiate until the government reopens.

Meanwhile, the impact of the shutdown on the American people is intensifying. With funding interrupted and the government only promising partial payments, 42 million Americans relying on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program are facing hardship.

Airports across the country are experiencing widespread delays due to staff shortages as air traffic controllers work without pay nationwide. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that a prolonged shutdown could trigger “massive disruption,” potentially forcing the closure of some airspace.

Looking Ahead:

The key question now is whether Trump will intervene more directly to end the government shutdown. When asked about this, Trump has made his position clear and reiterated his call for Republicans to abolish obstruction of process.

Behind the scenes, an informal group of rank-and-file members from both parties is actively consulting to find a way to break the deadlock.

Some Republican senators have indicated they believe they can gain more support from moderate Democrats after Tuesday's election; although Senate Democrats have not yet commented on this.

The core rhetoric of party leaders during the shutdown remains consistent. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer emphasized in his speech that both parties should engage in serious negotiations on healthcare issues and made it clear that Democrats will continue to push for the extension of these tax credits.

Senate Republican Leader Thune stated that he hopes Democrats will wake up and vote to reopen the government. The Senate leader admitted, "I still don't understand what they're trying to achieve with this shutdown."

Meanwhile, the short-term funding bill is expiring, providing only operating funds until November 21st. Thune pointed out that the deadline must be revised, sparking further controversy regarding the new deadline.

US Dollar Index Outlook Before Year-End

After a significant decline in the first three quarters of 2025, the US dollar index has recently shown a fluctuating upward trend. It is expected to maintain a slightly bullish bias in the short term, but its long-term trend faces pressure.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the US economic fundamentals, monetary policy expectations, technical characteristics, and geopolitical risks, the author makes the following assessment of the US dollar's trend before the end of the year (November 10th to December 31st, 2025):

The US dollar index will maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with a core range of 99.00-101.00, and a central point around 100.00. The probability of breaking through 101.00 is low, and the possibility of falling below 99 is also limited. Key supporting factors include a cooling of expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the uncertainty premium due to data gaps caused by the government shutdown, and a temporary increase in global risk aversion. Key suppressing factors include a slowdown in US economic growth momentum, a significant cooling in the job market, and the Fed's policy path of ultimately cutting rates.

From a timing perspective, mid-to-late November will be a crucial observation period, particularly the September non-farm payroll data likely to be released on November 14th (if the government shutdown ends), and the October inflation data likely to be released around November 20th. These will directly impact market expectations for the December 11-12 FOMC meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 60%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 40%.

It is particularly important to note that due to the ongoing US government shutdown, the timing of economic data releases remains highly uncertain. Investors should remain flexible and adjust their strategies based on the latest developments. Simultaneously, the evolution of geopolitical risks could also significantly impact the dollar's trajectory and requires close monitoring.

In general, the US dollar will face a situation of "limited upside potential and manageable downside risks" before the end of the year. Investors should seize opportunities during range-bound trading while managing risks to avoid significant losses due to unforeseen events.

Based on the current market environment and technical patterns, what are four different scenarios for gold prices in the future?

The international spot gold market experienced a dramatic rollercoaster ride from late October to early November. On October 28, gold prices suffered a sharp decline, breaking through the $4,000 mark in early trading, falling to a low of $3,886.20 per ounce, a single-day drop of up to 3.2%. This plunge was mainly due to progress in US-China trade negotiations, which significantly cooled market risk aversion, leading investors to sell gold and shift to riskier assets. At the same time, the rapid rise in gold prices from $3,311 to $4,381 had accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, and technical selling exacerbated the decline.

However, the market subsequently experienced a dramatic reversal. Starting October 29th, gold prices rebounded, regaining above $4,000 per ounce. Entering November, gold prices continued to fluctuate within the $3,900-$4,000 range.

This rebound exhibited several notable characteristics: First, it was rapid and significant, rising 4% from a low of $3,886 to a high of $4,046; second, the rebound was mainly concentrated during the US trading session, indicating the dominant role of European and American funds; third, trading volume increased significantly during the rebound, reflecting increased market participation; and fourth, the rebound repeatedly encountered resistance at the $4,000 psychological level, demonstrating the strong resistance at that level.

From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices formed a short-term consolidation platform within the $3,886-$4,046 range. The upper edge of this platform is around $4,050, and the lower edge is around $3,886, exhibiting a clear rectangular consolidation pattern. This pattern typically indicates that the market is choosing a direction, and a breakout will likely result in a significant one-sided trend.

Based on the current market environment and technical patterns, we can construct several different scenarios and predict the rebound under each scenario:

Scenario 1: Moderate Rebound Scenario (40% Probability)
In this scenario, gold prices will experience a moderate rebound within the $3,886-$4,046 range. Key assumptions include: the Federal Reserve maintaining its current hawkish stance but not raising interest rates further; the US government shutdown being resolved in the coming weeks; moderate global economic growth; and the status quo regarding geopolitical risks.

Scenario 2: Strong Rebound Scenario (30% Probability)
In this scenario, gold prices will experience a relatively strong rebound, potentially breaking through $4,100 and even challenging $4,200. Key assumptions include: the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals at its December meeting, hinting at a faster pace of interest rate cuts; significant deterioration in US economic data, particularly employment and inflation data; escalating geopolitical risks, such as a worsening situation in the Middle East or conflicts in other regions; and global central banks accelerating their gold purchases.

Scenario 2: Strong Rebound Scenario (30% Probability)
In this scenario, gold prices will experience a relatively strong rebound, potentially breaking through $4,100 and even challenging $4,200. Scenario 3: V-Shaped Reversal Scenario (10% Probability)

This is a more extreme scenario where gold prices may complete a "V"-shaped reversal in the short term, retesting historical highs. Key assumptions include: a major geopolitical event, such as war or a terrorist attack; systemic risks in the US financial markets, such as a banking crisis; the Federal Reserve being forced to significantly cut interest rates or restart quantitative easing; and severe inflation panic.

Scenario 3: Volatile Downward Trend Scenario (30% Probability)

In this scenario, gold prices will continue to adjust, potentially falling below $3,886 and seeking support in the $3,700-$3,750 range. Key assumptions include: the Federal Reserve becoming more hawkish, hinting at possible further rate hikes; stronger-than-expected US economic data, particularly a rebound in inflation; a significant strengthening of the US dollar index, breaking through the 102 mark; and improved global risk appetite, with funds flowing from gold to riskier assets such as stocks.

Scenario 3: Volatile Downward Trend Scenario (30% Probability) Whether spot gold can effectively break through resistance in the near term depends on the convergence of three factors: First, whether the US dollar and US Treasury yields experience a more sustained decline, creating room for discounting; second, whether risk appetite strengthens the "insurance demand" for gold due to equity volatility and increased macroeconomic uncertainty; and third, whether net inflows of funds continue, especially whether passive funds and longer-term allocation funds enter the market simultaneously. If these three factors fail to move in unison, gold prices will likely continue to consolidate within the $3,886-$4,000-$4,050 range. If they move in unison, the resistance above these round numbers will weaken more smoothly.

Where will US crude oil find its bottom after breaking below $60?

Last week, US crude oil touched a two-week low of $59.40 per barrel, due to a significant increase in US crude oil inventories and market concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, triggering demand worries.

The latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a significant increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, rising by 5.202 million barrels, far exceeding the market's initial estimate of 600,000 barrels. This indicates a clear shift in the U.S. crude oil supply, and market sentiment regarding the supply-demand structure has quickly turned cautious.

The sudden increase in inventories is primarily due to rising crude oil imports, causing supply to recover faster than demand. The surge in inventories reflects a rapid return to supply levels, which will continue to suppress potential price increases in the short term. Despite the significant inventory buildup on the supply side, end-user demand remains relatively resilient.

The large inventory accumulation has masked positive demand-side factors, leading to a pessimistic investor sentiment. Oil prices weakened rapidly after the inventory data release. Energy analysts pointed out that the increase in inventories "offset the bullish signal from last week's decline, making the market more cautious about the oil price outlook."

From a chart analysis perspective, WTI crude oil has fallen for several consecutive days, breaking below the key psychological support level of $60.00. Structurally, technical indicators are currently operating in a weak zone, without any obvious divergence signals, indicating that the bulls have not yet launched an effective counterattack. Technically, if inventories continue to accumulate, and oil prices continue to fall below the key support level of $59, it could open up downside potential to $54.78 this year; only when prices return above $62.38 can the bulls possibly reverse the downward trend.

The current market structure has rapidly shifted from a logic of "demand supporting oil prices" to a logic of "supply expansion suppressing oil prices," with inventories accumulating to $520.2... The figure of tens of thousands of barrels is enough to change market sentiment. Although the continuous decline in gasoline and distillate fuel inventories indicates that demand remains resilient, the demand-side positive factors are insufficient to offset the pressure on the supply side, and oil prices remain weak in the short term.

If inventories continue to accumulate, oil prices may fall further. Attention should be paid to subsequent inventory trends and changes in import volumes. If inventories increase for two consecutive weeks, the downside potential for oil prices will further open up.

This Week's Conclusion:

Due to the US government shutdown, there are still few major data releases this week that can significantly impact the market. The Eurozone will release the Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which sometimes provide good leading-edge guidance for PMIs. The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which includes some labor market sub-indices, is also closely watched in the current situation. China will release monthly data, including total retail sales of consumer goods, industrial value-added, housing sales, and housing prices.

On the other hand, The US Supreme Court began hearings on Wednesday regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs, with even some conservative judges expressing skepticism. Given the 6-3 conservative-liberal ratio on the Supreme Court, only two conservative judges need to vote against the legality of these tariffs. If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the government is likely to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which almost immediately allows the president to implement a 150-day, 15% tariff across the board. This would buy time to develop a longer-term plan. The ruling is likely to be issued next month.

This Week's Key Overseas Economic Events and Events:

Monday (November 10): Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index; Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from October Monetary Policy Committee meeting

Tuesday (November 11): Japan September Trade Balance - Central Bank seasonally adjusted based on customs data (billion yen); Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending November 9; UK September Unemployment Rate - by ILO standard (%); Eurozone November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Wednesday (November 12): Germany October CPI Final (%); US Treasury Secretary Bessant Speaks; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Thursday (November 13): Australia October Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (%); Australia October Employment Change (thousands); UK September GDP MoM (%); UK September Industrial Production MoM (%); UK Q3 Production-Based GDP Annual Rate (Preliminary) (%); US October CPI Annual Rate (Unadjusted) (%)

Friday (November 14): Eurozone Q3 Seasonally Adjusted GDP QoQ (Revised) (%); Eurozone September Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance (billions of euros)

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