US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, struggled to extend its modest gains from the Asian session on Thursday, remaining below the 102.00 psychological level. The index continues to hover near the two-week high reached on Wednesday, with traders now awaiting key US macroeconomic data for fresh impetus. Strong data would likely reinforce market expectations and push the DXY higher. Meanwhile, given the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold on Wednesday, any immediate negative market reaction to potentially disappointing data is expected to be limited. As widely anticipated, the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its October policy meeting, with a 10-2 vote. Furthermore, during the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that the central bank remains vigilant regarding persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, should provide a tailwind for the US dollar and support the DXY.
The corrective pullback in the DXY on Tuesday showed resilience below a confluence zone near 102.10, formed by the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Below this, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.85 offers further support, followed by the 78.6% retracement level at 101.67 and the lower Bollinger Band near 101.52. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 64, suggesting that momentum remains tilted to the upside rather than signaling exhaustion from overbought conditions. On the upside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 102.25 acts as immediate resistance, followed by a recent high near 102.49; a breakout above this level would pave the way for a more definitive continuation of the bullish trend.

Consider shorting the USD at 101.95 today, with a stop-loss at 102.10 and targets at 101.60 and 101.50.

AUD/USD

During Thursday’s Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair gathered momentum near 0.7030. The Australian dollar edged higher against the US dollar as hotter-than-expected inflation data bolstered market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 4.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.0% in August—surpassing the market consensus of 4.2%. This report strengthens the case for an RBA rate hike at its upcoming meeting and provides support for the Australian dollar. According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, the market now assigns an approximately 82% probability to an interest rate hike to 4.85% at the next RBA board meeting, up from 62% prior to the data release. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, in line with broad market expectations. In its statement, the central bank offered an improved assessment of the economy while acknowledging that inflation "remains elevated."

On the daily chart, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD is slightly bullish. The spot price is trading above both the 100-day simple moving average (0.731) and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (0.6990), suggesting that the underlying trend remains constructive following the recent rebound from below 0.70. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57—within positive territory but not yet in overbought territory—indicating that upward momentum is improving without being overextended. On the upside, initial resistance is found near the upper Bollinger Band at 0.7063, followed by the 0.7100 psychological level; the current rally is beginning to encounter resistance in this area. On the downside, initial support lies at the psychological level of 0.7000, followed by the middle line of the Bollinger Band at 0.6990. Further down, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level sits at 0.6975. Should the pullback extend, stronger buying interest may emerge near the lower Bollinger Band, around the 0.6917 level.
For today, one might consider going long on the AUD at 0.7020, with a stop-loss at 0.7010 and targets at 0.7070 and 0.7080.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session on Thursday, the GBP/USD pair faced renewed selling pressure, stalling the rebound that had begun the previous day from the 1.3275–1.3270 area—a two-week low. The pair is currently trading under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens broadly; however, a lack of follow-through selling has kept bearish traders cautious. The US Dollar regained positive momentum following its decline after the previous day’s FOMC meeting, driven by inflation risks—fueled by persistently high energy prices—which have led the market to continue betting on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders currently assign an approximately 80% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has provided a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar, which in turn has exerted downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, US Dollar bulls may choose to adopt a wait-and-see approach until further clarity emerges regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy path beyond December. At the same time, expectations for a more hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of England may help limit the downside for the GBP/USD pair.
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair maintains a slightly bullish short-term bias, holding above support levels provided by the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3313 and the middle line of the Bollinger Band at 1.3292. The spot price is trading at 1.3385, currently sitting slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests a generally constructive tone as the pair tests the upper boundary of its recent rebound range. Initial resistance lies at the cycle high of 1.3417, followed by the area near the 1.3450 mark. On the downside, immediate support is found at the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3311, followed by the 50.0% level at 1.3278, with further Fibonacci support levels at 1.3246 and 1.3199; the 1.3140 zone marks a more significant structural floor.
For today, consider going long on the GBP at 1.3375, with a stop-loss at 1.3365 and targets at 1.3410 and 1.3430.

USD/JPY

On Thursday, the Japanese yen held steady against the US dollar, trading near 157.60, following some pressure earlier in the week as investors awaited the upcoming policy decision from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The market widely expects the BoJ to keep interest rates unchanged; however, given persistent inflationary pressures, policymakers might signal a potential rate hike in December. Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming Japanese economic data—including the unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo inflation figures—all of which are due ahead of the BoJ’s announcement. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, as widely anticipated; however, two officials dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point hike, which has bolstered market expectations for a possible rate increase in December. Additionally, disappointing earnings from Google’s parent company and Samsung have reignited concerns regarding the sustainability of AI-related investments, providing fresh safe-haven demand for the yen. A daily close above 157.50 would signal a bullish bias for USD/JPY. The pair is currently trading between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are separated by approximately 20 points. Since October 1, the pair has traded within a range, with a floor established at the October 23 low and an upper bound just below 159.00. On the upside, resistance is found at 158.00—a level the pair retreated below following the release of recent data—which also coincides with the 50-day EMA. Thursday’s high, just below 158.50, serves as the next level of resistance. On the downside, 157.75 held firm during the data release. Thursday’s low was slightly above 157.00, with further support located at 156.50, near the lows seen on September 28 and September 30.

For today, consider shorting USD/JPY at 157.75; stop-loss: 157.90; targets: 157.10, 157.20.

EUR/USD

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, noting that economic activity continues to expand. In its statement, the Fed highlighted resilient domestic spending, strong capital investment, and robust productivity growth. Regarding its employment mandate, the central bank noted that job growth has kept pace with the labor force, while the unemployment rate has remained largely unchanged. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh reiterated the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) commitment to achieving price stability and its 2% inflation target, emphasizing that the underlying economy remains strong. Meanwhile, the Euro faces headwinds, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold its deposit rate steady at 2.50% during Thursday’s meeting, following a cumulative 50 basis points of rate hikes earlier this year. However, persistent energy-driven inflation continues to fuel debate over whether policymakers might raise interest rates again in December. Consequently, market participants are closely monitoring the European Central Bank’s assessment of inflation risks and economic growth, as well as any guidance regarding the future path of interest rates.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD has been trading within a range since early October—with the upper bound just above 1.1250—marking the latest phase of a decline that began from an August high of just over 1.1700. Since mid-September, the pair has failed to break above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits just below 1.1350, while the 200-day EMA lies just below 1.1500. EUR/USD remains under clear bearish pressure, trading below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1200 and well below the 100-day SMA; both serve as significant overhead resistance. The price is also hugging the lower Bollinger Band near 1.1130, underscoring a persistent downward bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 33—hovering near the oversold territory—suggesting that while bears remain in control, the downward trend may be susceptible to intermittent corrective rebounds. On the upside, immediate resistance is found near 1.1188 (the 9-day SMA), with further hurdles located at the middle Bollinger Band near 1.1200 and the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1273.

Consider going long on the Euro at 1.1175 today; stop-loss: 1.1165; targets: 1.1210, 1.1220.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading near $101.80 per barrel. Prices rose on Wednesday, driven by the ongoing conflict in Yemen, an attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery, and market concerns that the U.S. might take action against Iran following next week’s midterm elections. On Wednesday, the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked Aden Airport, having previously warned people to evacuate the facility. On Tuesday, the Houthis claimed to have launched a ballistic missile at the Ras Tanura refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia—the country’s largest refinery. Crude oil futures are once again pricing in expectations of tightening supply, fueled by reports that the U.S. could soon resume military operations—actions that, given the recent attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern allies, could be more intense than in the past.

On the daily chart, WTI crude oil continues its upward trend, holding firmly above both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA). The short-term bias remains decidedly bullish, with the price approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger Band range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 63—leaning toward the bullish zone without yet entering overbought territory—suggesting that the upward momentum is constructive rather than overextended. To the upside, initial resistance lies near $102.80 (Tuesday’s high), while the recent rally may encounter profit-taking as it approaches the upper Bollinger Band at $104.72. To the downside, immediate support is found at the psychological level of $100.00, followed by the 14-day SMA near $98.05. A break below this level could expose the 20-day simple moving average near $85.53; however, as the broader uptrend remains intact, these levels are expected to attract buying interest on dips.

Consider going long on crude oil at $101.75 today; stop-loss: $101.60; targets: $104.00 and $103.00.

Spot Gold

On Thursday, spot gold was trading near $4,020 per ounce. Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The market has been digesting comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who indicated that the Fed is clearly willing and prepared to take action. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting U.S. PCE inflation data. The short-term direction remains unclear: gold is caught between competing forces—supported by a pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, yet pressured by a resurgence in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and high expectations for a rate hike in December. Investors should also monitor how the market continues to interpret the Fed’s decision. The U.S. dollar was a key driver behind gold’s gains on Wednesday; while the initial reaction in the dollar following the Fed’s announcement was muted, it began to weaken once Chair Warsh commenced his press conference. With the yield curve steepening, the dollar has softened compared to its position prior to the FOMC meeting. For gold, a weaker dollar makes the metal—priced in USD—more affordable for holders of other currencies, providing short-term support.

It is not that gold lacks support; rather, both the support and the resistance are so strong that the price is left oscillating around the $4,020 level. In the short term, upside potential for gold may be limited, but the likelihood of a major sell-off is also low. A clear, definitive direction will likely only emerge once there is more clarity from upcoming inflation data and further signals from the central bank. On the daily chart, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, as it continues to trade below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), keeping sellers in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39, indicating weak buying momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting that downward pressure persists. On the upside, initial resistance is found near the $4,100 round-number mark, followed by the 20-day SMA at $4,114. Should a stronger rebound occur, the $4,200 level will come into focus as a key resistance point. On the downside, the $4,000–$3,950 range provides immediate support. A break below this zone would open the door for a deeper pullback; as long as the price remains below the cluster of daily moving averages, any attempted rebound is likely to face continued resistance.

For today, consider going long on gold at $4,015, with a stop-loss at $4,010 and targets at $4,050 and $4,060.