Dollar Index

The dollar index hovered in the 103 range in Wednesday trading, slightly stabilizing after recent selling pressure that pushed it below 102.00. The small rebound came after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting, where policymakers pointed to the "difficult trade-offs" ahead, mentioning the risks of high inflation and slowing economic growth. President Trump's sudden announcement of a 90-day suspension of most tariffs further fueled the market rebound, leading to a sharp rise in the Dow Jones Index. However, the bearish technical pattern of the dollar index suggests that the recovery may face resistance, and multiple indicators are still sending warning signals. The current performance of the dollar index is significantly affected by the policy of US President Trump on global trade tariffs. In the past few days, the overall risk aversion has greatly weakened the dollar, and the dollar index once plunged to 102 in the Asian market on Wednesday. Since the release of strong non-farm payrolls data last Friday, the dollar index has begun to stabilize. In the short term, pay attention to whether the exchange rate can effectively break through and hold the key resistance of 104.85, the 200-day moving average. If it breaks through successfully, it will provide stronger confirmation for the upward trend, and the next target may be the 105.9000 area.

Daily chart analysis shows that the US dollar index has experienced a deep correction from a high of 110.18 to 101.27. The current index once rebounded to around 103.50, but the US dollar index received strong resistance near the 20-day simple moving average of 103.62. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator also fell back to around 39.90, and the US dollar index also plummeted to a near-week low of 102. From a short-term perspective, the US dollar index is still facing the suppression of a structural downward trend. As the short-term impact of non-agricultural data fades, the market will refocus on the Fed's policy path. If the Fed meeting in May suggests that the interest rate cut cycle is about to begin, it may put pressure on the US dollar again. In this case, the exchange rate may retest the psychological level of 102.0000 and strong support near 101.87{lower line of the ascending channel}, and if it breaks, it will go down to the recent low of 101.27.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index near 103.15, stop loss: 103.30, target: 102.80, 102.70

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. On Wednesday, President Trump suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of most tariffs, further boosting the market rebound and causing the Dow Jones index to rise sharply. US crude oil rose sharply by more than 8%, trading around $62.70/barrel, as global trade conflicts exacerbated concerns about a recession, overshadowing the impact of the stock market rebound. The rebound in crude oil prices is still limited by the increasing macro pressures. Trade tensions have escalated sharply after Trump called for "reciprocal tariffs" on all imports. The threat of a protracted trade war has heightened market concerns about a global recession, which could severely dent crude oil demand growth. Geopolitical factors have added another layer of complexity. Trump has hinted at direct nuclear talks with Iran. Iran has said any dialogue would be indirect. A successful diplomatic breakthrough could bring more Iranian crude to the market, while a breakdown in talks could spark military tensions - either outcome could have a significant impact on supply expectations.

The pullback from the $72.00 high at the beginning of this month to a low of $56.43 late Wednesday. A 20.0% plunge in just six trading days is rare in recent years. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is below 22.00 and rebounded above 34, suggesting a corrective rebound is possible in the short term. Once the oil price can hold the psychological support of $55.00 firmly and the market sentiment changes substantially, there is a chance for a short-term technical rebound to $60.00 {market psychological barrier} and $60.87 {5-day simple moving average}. And further to $63.64 (early week high), and $65.68 (9-day simple moving average), otherwise the near-term outlook will still be bearish to $60.00 (market psychological barrier), and $58.78 (Monday low) support. As macro risks dominate the market and new supply concerns are imminent, the rebound is likely to be difficult to sustain unless the technical and data are unexpectedly positive.

Consider going long on crude oil near 62.40 today, stop loss: 62.20; target: 63.64; 63.80

Spot gold

On Wednesday (April 9), gold prices rose more than 3% in an attempt to reclaim the high of $3,100/ounce after Trump approved a 90-day suspension of tariffs, and are expected to have their best day since October 2023. The weaker dollar and escalating trade tensions still provide support. Despite falling for three consecutive trading days, gold remains bullish, with trade tensions and the prospect of lower US interest rates increasing its appeal. A solid break above $3,055 could open the door to $3,100 and $3,130. If weakness continues and falls below $3,000, gold could slide to $2,950 and $2,930. Gold prices have recovered significantly from the key support level of $2,955. The current market focus is on the evolution of the Fed's policy path and the geopolitical trade situation. With the interweaving of long and short factors, the short-term volatility of gold has risen significantly.

The recent volatility of gold reflects the market's trade-off between "risk aversion" and "liquidity tightening" - when the plunge in risky assets triggers margin pressure, gold may be sold to make up for losses; but once sentiment stabilizes, its anti-inflation and hedging properties against currency depreciation will re-dominate pricing. From the perspective of the disk structure, the trend of gold this week showed a typical "sharp drop and slow rise" feature. On Monday, the gold price accurately tested the support of $2956.70 {low point on April 7} and then rebounded. This position corresponds to the neckline of the platform that broke through in mid-March, and formed a "double bottom" defense line. The intraday low buying is dense, indicating that medium- and long-term investors regard the correction as an opportunity to build a position. If it loses 3000 {market psychological barrier) again, it is not ruled out that the $2955-2956 range will be tested. The first resistance above is at the $3100 round number mark and $3136 {April 4 high}. After breaking through, it may test $3167 (historical high of $3167), which is still a psychological mark, but it is difficult to challenge directly in the short term.

Today, you can consider going long on gold before 3078, stop loss: 3075; target: 3120; 3125.00

AUD/USD

During the US session on Wednesday, the Australian dollar strengthened, climbing to the mid-0.6150 area as the US dollar continued to retreat amid a rebound in risk appetite in global markets. The currency pair rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump suddenly suspended most tariffs for 90 days, driving up stocks and helping risk-sensitive currencies. Trump's remarks raised optimism that global trade tensions may ease. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant revealed that nearly 70 countries have contacted the White House to seek to negotiate tariffs. Nevertheless, market volatility is expected to remain high as Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports if Beijing does not reduce tariffs on US goods. The Australian dollar came under pressure as US-China trade tensions persisted, especially as Australia maintains strong economic ties with China. Beijing condemned Trump's latest threats as "blackmail" and vowed to protect its interests. Australia's economic outlook remains fragile, and the weak data has increased market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, with markets now pricing in up to 100 basis points of rate cuts this year - starting in May, with further cuts likely in July and August.

On Wednesday, AUD/USD traded close to 0.6150, having earlier fallen to a fresh 5-year low of 0.5914. Technical indicators on the daily chart point to a sustained bearish bias as the pair remains below the 14-day simple moving average (0.6216). However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is below 50, suggesting a corrective rebound is possible in the short term. Immediate support is at 0.6090 {5-day moving average}. On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 14-day SMA (0.6216), followed by 0.6270 (34-day SMA). In case of a stronger rebound, the pair may test the 0.6300 psychological level.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6140 today, Stop Loss: 0.6130; Target: 0.6200; 0.6210

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rose for the second consecutive session during the European session on Wednesday, trading around 1.2820-1.2830. The pair's gains were supported by easing trade tensions as U.S. President Trump expressed his willingness to negotiate with global partners, sparking hopes that the trade conflict could cool down. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed on Tuesday that it is ready to start collecting country-specific tariffs on 86 trading partners. Although President Trump is sticking to his broader tariff plan despite requesting exemptions, he expressed his willingness to participate in discussions. The pound also found support from rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to around 4.61% at the time of writing. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the US may negotiate certain tariffs after Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that about 70 countries, including Japan, have made requests to Washington for talks.

GBP/USD ended a severe two-day downtrend on Tuesday, finding technical support from the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.2812 and launching a technical rebound. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart rebounded to around 48, and bullish momentum is still marginally weak, but buying pressure was just enough to end the two-day downtrend, during which GBP/USD fell more than 3% from high to low. Buyers still need to extend from the 200-day exponential moving average to confirm a bullish recovery. Then 1,2891 (30-day exponential moving average) may become a target, and a breakout could point to the 1.2900 round number level. If a bearish recovery occurs, the first support level will be the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.2812, and 1.2800 (market psychological level), followed by 1.2708 (low level at the beginning of this week.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2800, stop loss: 1.2790, target: 1.2850, 1.2860

USD/JPY

The yen's buying momentum continued unabated on Wednesday as investors continued to seek shelter in traditional safe-haven currencies amid tariff-driven global recession concerns. In addition, reports that US President Trump has agreed to meet with Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions further fueled optimism about a US-Japan trade deal after a phone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This, coupled with expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates amid rising domestic inflation, also provided support for the yen. At the same time, hawkish BoJ expectations have diverged significantly from the Federal Reserve's expectations for more aggressive rate cuts. This will lead to a further narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, which is seen as another factor driving fund flows to the low-yielding yen. In addition to this, the prevailing US dollar selling bias has kept USD/JPY trading in Asia. The session approached the psychological level of 145.00.

The 14-day relative strength index (34.00) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is deeply in the negative zone and is still far from entering the oversold zone, indicating that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY is downward. Further follow-up selling below the psychological level of 145.00 will confirm the negative outlook and expose the year-to-date lows, around the 144.55 area hit on Monday, and then the spot price eventually fell to the 144.00 round number mark. A breakout points to 143.43 {October 2, 2024 low}. On the other hand, the 147.50 mark seems to limit any attempt to rebound. Next is the 148.00 round number mark area, and a breakout may trigger short-term covering, pushing USD/JPY to the 149.00 round number mark.

Today's recommendation is Short USD before 147.65, stop loss: 147.90; target: 146.80, 146.50

EUR/USD

The global market plunge caused by US President Trump's tariff plan directly consolidated the ECB's reason for cutting interest rates next week and may push it to accelerate the pace of monetary easing. Economists warn that the expected economic slowdown and sharp market fluctuations brought about by tariffs will put deflationary pressure on price levels far exceeding the EU's retaliatory measures. Although policymakers have not yet agreed on a long-term path, the market crash has made a rate cut next week almost certain. This market earthquake caused by the trade war is forcing the ECB to make a difficult choice between maintaining growth and controlling inflation. With the shadow of recession looming, the monetary policy easing train has sounded the whistle and set off, and its speed and intensity may rewrite the policy record of the post-crisis era. If the ECB accelerates interest rate cuts and the Fed maintains high interest rates for longer, the widening interest rate gap between Europe and the United States will directly weaken the attractiveness of the euro, resulting in pressure on the euro against the dollar.

Currently, the euro is in a "sandwich market" against the US dollar - the upper side is subject to trade risks, and the lower side is supported by the expectation of easing by the Federal Reserve. Technically, it needs to break through 1.1000 to open up the upside space, and the uncertainty of fundamentals suggests that investors pay close attention to the interaction of US and European policies and inflation data. Because the psychological barrier of 1.100 has become a watershed between long and short positions, it has been tested many times in recent days without success. The technical indicator of the daily chart is the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator, which is around 62.00, indicating that the short-term trend of GBP/USD is still strong. If the bulls break through 1.1000, the next target will be 1.1050, the high at the beginning of the week, and the break will continue to point to 1.1147 (the previous high of nearly seven months). As for the support below, the 9-day simple moving average of 1.0903 and other integer barriers of 1.0900 constitute a short-term defense line. If it fails, it may fall back to 1.0866 (25-day simple moving average) level.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.0940, stop loss: 1.0930, target: 1.0990, 1.1010.

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