US Dollar Index

The US dollar index fell to a near seven-month low of 100.70 area on Thursday, falling further as it failed to maintain the rebound momentum from earlier this week. The move came as the White House confirmed new tariff measures that raised the effective tax rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%. Federal Reserve officials, including Jeff Schmid and Lori Logan, warned that these trade actions could exacerbate inflation and labor market dynamics. On the technical side, the MACD continues to signal selling pressure, while the relative strength index (RSI) hovers above the oversold zone. The US dollar index remains vulnerable as downward momentum builds. The US dollar index fell in the European session after a sharp rebound the previous day. The European Union has announced its own countermeasures and may also be excluded from the tariff suspension. Although the tariff relief has provided support to market sentiment in the short term, investors remain wary of the broader impact of Trump's economic policies, especially their potential impact on growth and inflation.

The recent pressure on the US dollar index reflects both market doubts about the direction of Trump's policies and highlights the dilemma faced by the Fed in the face of the "stubborn inflation + weak economy" dilemma. The current technical weakness of the US dollar index and the fundamental confidence are shaken. In the short term, it may fall further to 101.27 {previous low} or lower. Key economic data in the next week or two will determine whether the Fed will start the first round of interest rate cuts this year. If the data deteriorates further, the US dollar index may fall below the 100 mark. The technical indicator of the daily chart, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), shows a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 29.50, reflecting a neutral tone. It has now fallen below the 101.27 (previous low) mark, while the initial support level is at 100.50. If this bottom is broken, it may retreat deeper to the psychological level of 100.00. As for the resistance level, it is around 101.27 (April 3 low), and around 102.00 (market psychological level).

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 101.15, stop loss: 101.30, target: 100.70, 100.60

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. On Thursday, international oil prices fell sharply, with a single-day drop of nearly $3 per barrel, basically giving up all the gains of the previous trading day. Investors re-evaluated the actual impact of the US "tariff suspension" measures, while turning their focus to the continued escalation of the US-China trade war. WTI crude oil traded at $61.30 in the Asian session on Thursday morning. WTI prices fell due to the escalation of the US-China trade war and concerns about slowing economic growth and energy demand. The rekindled trade tensions raised serious questions about future oil demand, putting pressure on black gold prices. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, just hours after China had raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%. China's fierce retaliation reduced the chances of a quick deal between the world's two largest economies, triggering growing concerns about a global recession. The Energy Information Administration's weekly report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.553 million barrels in the week ending April 4. On the other hand, WTI's downside may be limited due to the closure of the Keystone oil pipeline.

WTI crude oil prices fluctuated widely in the middle of the week, with some competition between bulls and bears. WTI crude oil prices fell sharply to a new low of $56.70 during the session, the lowest level since January 2021. The deteriorating global economic outlook continues to weigh on oil prices. Later, after U.S. President Trump said he would suspend the tariffs he announced last week on most other economies, oil prices climbed more than 7.5%, rebounding from a four-year low hit at the beginning of the session and re-rising above $60.00 {market psychological barrier}. However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator of the daily chart, is still in the negative zone near 34.50, so the short-term trend is still not optimistic. The downside target is first seen at the support level of $58.78 (Monday's low) and $56.70, which is the lowest support level since January 2021. Once the psychological support of $60.00 is firmly held and there is a substantial change in market sentiment, there is a chance for a technical rebound to $63.64 (the high at the beginning of the week), and $64.80 (9-day simple moving average.

Today, consider going long on crude oil near 59.65, stop loss: 59.40; target: 61.00; 61.30

Spot gold

After the White House confirmed the new tariffs, gold prices continued to rise to a record high, breaking through the $3,170 per ounce mark, triggering another round of dollar selling. Gold prices hit a record high near $3,176. On Thursday, spot gold soared more than 3% again, trading near $3,176. Earlier, Gold prices climbed more than 3.30% on Wednesday, the best single-day performance since October 2023. Behind this epic rally was the Trump administration's decision to raise tariffs on Asian giants to 125%. The market panic index exploded instantly, and investors once frantically sold stocks and industrial commodities, pushing gold to the safe haven throne. Although the 90-day tariff suspension caused gold prices to fall slightly to $3,082, traders still bought gold. In the final analysis, gold is still seen as a hedge against unstable factors. Gold prices have risen by more than $500 so far in 2025.

The technical setup of the daily chart favors gold buyers, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rebounded and stabilized above 60, currently close to 67. On Thursday, gold prices broke through the previous high of $3,167.60, opening the door for more gains. Yesterday, the all-time high of $3,176.20 was seen again, 3200 will be the next focus for buyers, and a breakout will challenge the $3300 round mark. If US inflation data is higher than expected, it will mean that the Fed will pause again next month, weighing on non-yielding gold. Gold prices may find immediate respite at the previous resistance-turned-support level of 3100 {round mark). Additional declines may threaten $3071 {Thursday's low}, and the 14-day simple moving average of $3067, below which it will inevitably test the 20-day simple moving average support level at $3054.

Consider going long on gold before 3172 today, stop loss: 3168; target: 3190; 3200.00

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continued to rise on Thursday, climbing to the 0.6240 area during the US session. The pair extended its recent strength as the US dollar index further slipped to a multi-month low in the 100.70 area. The move came after the market digested the news that the White House confirmed the imposition of high tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, while the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious tone. Despite the weaker US dollar, the technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside, with multiple key indicators continuing to send bearish signals even as the pair attempts to recover lost ground. The Australian dollar rebounded against the US dollar on Thursday on news that Australia is preparing for a renegotiation of trade talks with the European Union. The EU decided to revisit the stalled negotiations. The AUD/USD pair weakened after US President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, raising concerns about Australia's close trade relationship with China. Australia's economic outlook remains fragile, with business and consumer confidence lagging. The weak data reinforced market expectations for a more dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

AUD/USD traded above 0.6200 on Thursday, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart was below 50, pointing to a persistent bearish bias and indicating a strengthening of the bearish bias. Therefore, on the upside, the first resistance is at 0.6266{34-day simple moving average}, followed by the market psychological level of 0.6300. In addition, the immediate support is located in the 0.6200{round mark}, and 0.6168{9-day moving average} area, and a breakout points to the 0.6100 round mark level.

Today, you can consider going long on the Australian dollar before 0.6210, stop loss: 0.6200; target: 0.6260; 0.6270

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rose sharply, just below the psychological level of 1.3000. This development came amid a sharp sell-off in the US dollar after the trade war tensions and the US announced a 145% tariff on China. The GBP/USD pair recovered the losses of the previous day and maintained its winning streak for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around 1.2850 during Thursday's Asian trading hours. The pound came under pressure after the RICS House Price Balance released weaker-than-expected data, which showed a mere 2% increase in March. Trade tensions between the United States and China have re-escalated, further weighing on the pound. U.S. President Donald Trump announced an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, after China retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%. The escalating trade war provides a negative backdrop for the UK, which appears ill-equipped to compete with China in a price war. Meanwhile, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that U.S. policymakers almost unanimously acknowledged the dual threats of persistent inflation and slowing economic growth. The minutes warned that the Fed will face "difficult trade-offs" in dealing with these competing challenges.

GBP/USD was again supported by buying midweek, extending a weak rebound from the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.2813 to strive for a second day of gains. Bullish momentum remains marginally weak, but buying pressure is just enough to keep the pound at high levels. Buyers still need to extend from the 200-day exponential moving average to confirm a bullish recovery. The short-term outlook for the pair is bullish as it is trading above its 20-day exponential moving average, which is around 1.2929. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rebounded above 55. If the RSI rebounds above 60.00 levels on a sustained basis, it may trigger new bullish momentum. Looking down, the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.2812, 1.2800 (market psychological level) will serve as a key support range for the pair. The next level is the low of this week at 1.2708. Looking up, 1.3000 (market psychological level) is the first resistance level, and then points to the key resistance level of 1.3207 of the previous high.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2950, ​​stop loss: 1.2940, target: 1.3040, 1.3060

USD/JPY

USD/JPY was under strong selling pressure and fell to around 144.00 during the American session on Thursday. The escalation of the US-China trade war and the divergence in policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve supported the yen and weighed heavily on it amid another decline in the US dollar. The yen maintained its bullish bias during Thursday's Asian trading session as the market bet that the Bank of Japan will continue to hike interest rates, supported by the strength of Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI). Apart from this, market expectations of a possible trade deal with Japan and the escalating US-China trade war have also become other factors supporting the safe-haven yen. Coupled with a slight pullback in the US dollar, the USD/JPY pair retreated to around the 145.00 range. Market participants are already pricing in the flow of Fed funds to the lower-yielding yen and helped the USD/JPY pair take advantage of a rebound from the sub-144.00 level, which is the lowest level since October 2024. Traders are now focusing on US consumer inflation data, which may affect the dollar and provide new impetus.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has been finding support at the 148.00 round number since the beginning of this week. Moreover, the oscillator on the daily chart remains in the negative territory and is still far from entering the oversold zone. This in turn favours bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, a follow-through slide towards the 144.50 intermediate support, in the direction of the 144.00 mark, seems to be a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling will expose the next relevant support around the 143.43 {last year’s October 2 low} area before the pair eventually falls towards the 142.00 psychological mark. On the other hand, $145 is the first resistance area followed by the 146.67 (5-day moving average) mark, which could pose an immediate resistance before the 147.00-147.50 area.

Today's recommendation is to short USD before 144.60, stop loss: 144.80; target: 143.50, 143.30

EUR/USD

During Thursday's American session, EUR/USD extended its rally after the European close on Thursday, approaching the 1.1240 area and registering one of its strongest daily gains in recent times {+2.41%}. The move pushed the euro towards the upper limit of its intraday range, which is between 1.0942 and 1.1220, highlighting the pair's bullish momentum as it tests new highs for 2025. EUR/USD attracted some buying as the leader of Germany's conservatives reached a coalition agreement with the center-left Social Democrats on Wednesday. On Wednesday, Germany's conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, reached a coalition agreement with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) to promote growth in Europe's largest economy despite the global trade war threatening a recession. The development could boost EUR/USD in the short term. Improving market sentiment also provided some support to the euro after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs. However, rising market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further this year could drag the dollar lower. Traders now only see a 40% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting next month.

From the daily chart, EUR/USD has formed an ascending channel pattern and is currently near the central axis of the channel. The exchange rate has broken through the key resistance level of 1.1147 (previous high) to 1.1241, the high of this year. It is worth noting that the lower track of the channel and the 200-day moving average (1.0733) form a strong support area. Although the MACD of the technical indicator shows signs of high-level divergence, the difference between the DIFF line and the DEA line is still positive, currently at 0.0085, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is still intact. The RSI is at 73.20, showing strong upward momentum. The CCI indicator reached 138.82 and has entered the overbought area, indicating that there may be adjustment pressure in the short term. EUR/USD ended two consecutive days of decline this week, marking the recent technical support level close to the previous high of 1.1147. However, bidding pressure is still small, and a mild push from the shorts can easily push EUR/USD back to the 1.1000 (round mark) level. On the upside, 1.1275 {July 2023 high} and the round mark of 1.1300 can be considered respectively.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1205, stop loss: 1.1190, target: 1.1260, 1.1270.

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